Executive Summary Dashboard Cross-Asset Scenario Matrix Sectors Crypto Trade Ideas Risk Radar Week Ahead Institutional Holders Military Escalation Tracker

A. Executive Summary — Dalio "Big Picture"

Regime diagnosis: late-cycle stagflation-lite. Real GDP tracking has collapsed from 3.7% in May to just 1.6% (Atlanta Fed GDPNow, July 27), while headline CPI at 3.5% remains 150bp above target. This is the classic "rising inflation + falling growth" quadrant — the worst environment for balanced 60/40 portfolios and the best for hard assets, energy, and volatility.

Beautiful deleveraging status: FAILING. The Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh has explicitly rejected forward guidance and signaled "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation." Fiscal spending remains elevated due to the ongoing Iran conflict — the war memorandum of understanding is now "over" and CENTCOM has struck 90+ targets in July alone. The mix of tight monetary policy + loose fiscal + war spending is the textbook setup for a bear steepener in bonds.

Key opportunity vs. risk: The opportunity is that gold at $4,045 and silver at $57.68 have both established new regimes — this is not a top, this is a debasement trade with room to run. The risk is that the S&P 500 at 7,413 remains within 2% of its January peak despite deteriorating growth and a hawkish Fed — the equity market is NOT pricing in a policy mistake. The market is pricing 75%+ probability of a hike this year; if that materializes, credit spreads widen and equities re-rate 8-12% lower.

WHAT MARKETS ARE NOT PRICING IN: A simultaneous outcome of (1) Warsh delivering a hawkish surprise today at 2:00 PM ET, (2) a Strait of Hormuz shipping halt lasting beyond August, and (3) Atlanta Fed GDPNow revising Q2 growth below 1.0%. Any two of these three would break the equity complacency.

B. Market Dashboard — Global Cross-Asset Snapshot

Rates & Policy

Fed Funds

3.50–3.75%

Hold expected

2Y Treasury

4.281%

▼ Bear steepening

10Y Treasury

4.606%

▼ -3 bp

30Y Treasury

5.092%

▲ Long-end pressure

2s10s Spread

+32 bp

Steepening

CPI YoY

3.5%

▼ from 4.2%

Equities & Volatility

Asset	Level	Day %	YTD %	Trend
S&P 500	7,413.18	+0.02%	+9.0%	→ Consolidation near ATH
Nasdaq 100	24,932.08	-0.20%	+7.8%	↓ Chip sell-off
Dow Jones	52,210.08	+0.50%	+8.5%	↑ Defensive rotation
VIX	18.22	+0.05%	—	→ Complacent pre-Fed

Currencies & Rates

Pair	Level	Day %	Signal
DXY	101.52	-0.01%	One-month high
EUR/USD	1.1400+	+0.4%	Rebound from lows
USD/JPY	163.76	-0.01%	BOJ intervention risk

Commodities & Precious Metals

Asset	Price	Day	Notes
Gold	$4,045/oz	-0.3%	Above 200DMA, debasement trade intact
Silver	$57.68/oz	-0.4%	Multi-decade breakout regime
WTI Crude	$81.00/bbl	-2.1%	Iran ceasefire hopes cap
Brent	$87.53/bbl	-1.8%	War premium ~$12/bbl
Natural Gas	$2.72/MMBtu	-1.75%	3-month low, oversupply
Uranium (spot)	$86.30/lb	-0.1%	Structural bull intact

Crypto

Asset	Price	24h %	Dominance	Notes
Bitcoin (BTC)	$63,327	-3.2%	56.0%	Pre-FOMC de-risking
Ethereum (ETH)	$1,878	-3.2%	9.98%	ETH/BTC breakout thesis intact
Total Mcap	$2.26T	-1.6%	—	$65.7B 24h volume

Global / Overnight

Asian equities mixed overnight with Nikkei modestly higher on softer yen; European CAC and DAX up 0.2-0.4% as easing Iran tensions and softer oil restored risk appetite. Emerging markets pressured by strong DXY into Fed day.

C. Cross-Asset Analysis — Druckenmiller Lens

What the bond market is saying: The 2s10s at +32bp with 30Y at 5.09% is a classic bear steepener — the long end is being sold on fiscal deficit fears (war spending) while the front end holds because Warsh is signaling holds/hikes, not cuts. This is the SAME pattern as 1970s stagflation and the opposite of 2019-2020 recession pricing. The bond market is telling you: the Fed will not rescue risk assets from a growth slowdown.

What equities are saying (and why they may be wrong): S&P at 7,413 sits ~2% off ATH with breadth deteriorating — chipmakers dumped Tuesday (NVDA -5%, SNDK -11%, SK Hynix -7.5%). This is textbook late-cycle behavior: defensive names (staples, comms) lead while cyclicals crack. The Dow's outperformance vs. Nasdaq is confirmation. Equities are still priced for a soft landing that GDPNow at 1.6% no longer supports.

Divergence signal — safe havens vs. risk: Gold at $4,045 with silver at $57.68 while BTC drops -3.2% is REVEALING. In prior 2020-2023 cycles, BTC and gold moved together as "debasement plays." Today, gold is decoupling higher — the marginal safe-haven bid is going to physical metals, NOT to crypto. This suggests either (a) sovereign/central-bank demand for gold is dominating, or (b) crypto's correlation to Nasdaq/liquidity is reasserting.

Global liquidity conditions: Contracting. DXY at 101.5 (one-month high), BOJ under intervention watch (USD/JPY 163.76), and Chinese credit impulse turning negative — this is a global USD tightening episode. Historically toxic for EM equities and long-duration tech.

Dollar strength implications: Strong USD is a headwind for (i) US multinationals — 40% of S&P 500 revenue is foreign; (ii) commodities priced in USD except gold (which is proving its "anti-fiat" credentials); (iii) EM debt sustainability. Watch USD/CNH — a break above 7.30 would signal Chinese devaluation is the pressure release.

D. Scenario Matrix — All-Weather Framework

Positioning quadrant analysis. Current regime: rising inflation + falling growth (stagflation) — the toughest quadrant historically.

↑ Growth + ↑ Inflation (Reflation)

Assets that win: Commodities, EM equities, cyclicals, TIPS, real estate

Probability: 20% — Requires GDPNow to reverse higher and CPI to re-accelerate. Iran escalation could trigger via oil.

↑ Growth + ↓ Inflation (Goldilocks)

Assets that win: Tech / growth stocks, credit, long-duration bonds

Probability: 15% — Requires disinflation AND growth reacceleration. Consensus view but data doesn't support.

↓ Growth + ↑ Inflation (Stagflation) ← CURRENT

Assets that win: Gold, silver, energy, defensive equities, cash, long volatility

Probability: 45% — CPI 3.5% + GDPNow 1.6% + Iran war = classic 1970s setup.

↓ Growth + ↓ Inflation (Recession)

Assets that win: Long-duration Treasuries, USD, defensive equities, gold

Probability: 20% — Bear case: growth cracks further, Iran ceasefire holds, Fed forced to cut aggressively Q4.

Trending toward: The vector points from stagflation → recession as growth deteriorates faster than inflation. Bond long-duration becomes an increasingly attractive contrarian trade IF the Iran conflict de-escalates by end-Q3.

E. Sector & Theme Spotlight — Marks "Second-Level Thinking"

Momentum Themes

1. Defense & Aerospace (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD) — HIGH conviction, momentum + fundamentals. RTX Q2 backlog hit a record $289B (+22% YoY), LMT ended 2025 with a record $194B backlog (2.5 years of sales). This is a multi-year re-rating story driven by both the Iran conflict and structural allied re-armament (Europe hitting 2%+ of GDP defense targets). Even after 30%+ YTD moves, forward P/Es are still below prior peaks.

2. Precious Metals Miners (NEM, GOLD, WPM, PAAS, SIL) — HIGH conviction, leveraged to metals regime. With gold at $4,045 and silver at $57.68, miner free cash flow is exploding. All-in sustaining costs for gold majors remain ~$1,400-1,600/oz — that's a $2,500+/oz margin. This is a decade-plus bull market being underappreciated by equity investors still fixated on tech.

3. Uranium & Nuclear (CCJ, URNM, URA, NXE, DNN) — HIGH conviction, structural supply deficit. Uranium at $86.30 with utilities re-entering the term market and AI datacenter power demand. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust net asset value continues to grind higher; Cameco Q2 outlook constructive.

Contrarian / Second-Level Ideas

Long-duration Treasuries (TLT, ZROZ) — MEDIUM conviction contrarian. Consensus hates duration because Warsh is hawkish. But if GDPNow prints below 1.0% next update AND Iran de-escalates, the "growth scare + no inflation shock" combination produces a violent rally in 30Y bonds. Position size small, risk defined.

Utilities (XLU, NEE, CEG) — MEDIUM conviction. Defensive with a growth kicker via AI/datacenter power demand. Yields sustainable even at higher rates because of regulated returns.

Losers to Avoid / Short

Consumer discretionary (XLY, retailers), Airlines (JETS), Regional banks (KRE) — the trifecta of a growth slowdown, elevated funding costs, and no Fed rescue. Airlines particularly exposed to oil war-premium volatility.

F. Crypto Deep Dive — War-Regime Analysis

BTC & ETH Technical / On-Chain

BTC at $63,327 is testing key support after failing to sustain above $65K. Dominance at 56% is elevated but ETH/BTC has broken out (near 0.030 level), triggering some altcoin rotation. ETH at $1,878 remains weak vs. BTC's 2024-2025 range but the ETH/BTC breakout is a leading indicator worth watching.

Institutional Flows

US spot BTC ETFs recorded ~$1B in net inflows over 7 consecutive sessions through July 22, with BlackRock's IBIT dominating (~$319M of $499M weekly total). However, YTD net outflows across all spot BTC ETFs still sit at -$5.4B — one of the worst institutional selloff periods in ETF history. The July rebound is real but nowhere near recovering H1 2026 damage. Institutional stance: cautiously constructive, not conviction-buying.

War Impact on Crypto — Is BTC Digital Gold or Risk Asset?

Verdict: BTC is behaving as a RISK ASSET, not digital gold, during the Iran conflict.

Evidence: Since February 28, 2026 (Iran war outbreak), gold is up ~28% while BTC is down ~10%. During each escalation episode (April Strait of Hormuz closure, July tanker strikes), gold spiked +2-4% while BTC fell -3-6%. The correlation of BTC to S&P 500 30-day rolling stands at +0.72 while BTC-to-gold correlation is -0.31. This is the OPPOSITE of the "digital gold" thesis.

Stablecoin capital flight indicator: USDT + USDC combined market cap has climbed to ~$185B (up ~$12B since Feb), consistent with capital seeking dollar exposure via crypto rails — particularly from Middle East and EM investors avoiding sanctions or banking restrictions.

DeFi TVL: Flat to modestly lower during war escalation phases, confirming that crypto liquidity contracts during geopolitical stress rather than expanding as a safe haven.

Historical context: During Russia-Ukraine 2022 outbreak, BTC initially fell 8% before recovering as it became a proven capital-flight tool for Russians. The 2026 Iran playbook is different because Iranian retail crypto adoption is smaller and G7 sanctions on crypto rails are more effective post-Tornado Cash precedent.

Regulatory Landscape

The CLARITY Act catalyst that unlocked July's ETF inflows suggests regulatory tailwinds building. Trump administration's ethics agreements clearing legislative path — a base-case bullish backdrop for 2026 H2 if geopolitics stabilize.

G. Conviction Views & Trade Ideas

Conviction Trades

1. Long Gold (GLD, PHYS) or Gold Miners (GDX, NEM) HIGH

Thesis: Debasement regime intact; central bank buying continues; real yields compressed by war-driven fiscal spend. Target: $4,300-4,500 into year-end. Stop: $3,850 close. R/R: 2.5:1.

2. Long Defense Basket (ITA, XAR or LMT+RTX+NOC equal weight) HIGH

Thesis: Multi-year re-rating; record backlogs; allied re-armament spending accelerating. Target: +15-20% next 6 months. Stop: -8% from entry. R/R: 2:1.

3. Long Silver via SLV or Miners (SIL, PAAS) HIGH

Thesis: Structural deficit + industrial (solar/EV) + monetary demand; Jane Street's 20.7M-share SLV position is smart-money confirmation. Target: $68-72/oz in 12 months. Stop: $52 close.

Tactical Positions

4. Short Nasdaq (QQQ puts or SQQQ) MEDIUM

Thesis: Tech breadth deteriorating; hawkish Fed pressures long-duration equity valuations; chip sector cracking. Trade Aug/Sep puts, 3% OTM. Size 1-2% of book.

5. Long Uranium (URNM, CCJ, UEC) MEDIUM

Thesis: $86 spot uranium with utility term-market re-engagement + AI power demand. Target: $110-120/lb spot in 12-18 months.

Speculative Bets

6. Long 30Y Treasuries (TLT, ZROZ) LOW

Contrarian growth-scare hedge. Small size, defined risk. Wins if GDPNow prints sub-1% AND Iran de-escalates. Target: TLT $95-100 (currently ~$85).

Key Levels to Watch

Asset	Current	Bull Trigger	Bear Trigger
S&P 500	7,413	Break 7,500	Break 7,200
10Y Yield	4.61%	Below 4.40%	Above 4.85%
BTC	$63,327	Reclaim $67K	Break $58K
Gold	$4,045	Above $4,150	Below $3,900
DXY	101.5	Above 103	Below 100

H. Risk Radar — Tail Scenarios

Top 3 Tail Risks:

1. Warsh delivers a "hawkish shock" at 2:00 PM ET today. If the statement explicitly opens the door to a September hike (Fed Funds futures currently price 76% probability of a September hike), risk assets sell off 3-5% intraday. Mitigation: reduce equity beta pre-2:00 PM ET, hold volatility exposure.

2. Strait of Hormuz closure extends beyond August. Tanker transit already down to 4/day from pre-war 125-140/day. Oil spikes to $110-130, gasoline to $4.50+/gallon, CPI re-accelerates, Fed forced into policy dilemma. Mitigation: long energy (XLE, XOP), long oil producers, short airlines.

3. Chinese devaluation / USD/CNH break above 7.30. Would signal Beijing's tolerance for weaker yuan as trade/growth pressure release. Exports deflation to US, but risk assets initially crater on EM contagion. Mitigation: long USD, long gold (dual hedge).

Black Swans on Peripheral Vision:

(a) Assassination or regime change in Iran triggering broader Sunni-Shia conflict escalation; (b) Taiwan Strait incident during US election-year political vacuum; (c) US regional bank stress reappearing on CRE losses + higher-for-longer rates; (d) Japanese bond yields breaking 2%+ triggering global carry-trade unwind.

Stop-Loss Triggers (Position-Level):

• If S&P 500 breaks 7,200 close → reduce equity beta by 30%
• If VIX closes above 25 → activate defensive tail hedges
• If gold breaks 3,900 close → reduce miner overweight by 20%
• If Iran ceasefire signed → cover energy longs, reduce defense overweight by 25%

I. Week Ahead Calendar — Key Catalysts

Date	Event	Importance	Watch For
Wed Jul 29	FOMC Decision + Warsh Presser	CRITICAL	Statement language on inflation; SEP dots; hawkish surprise
Wed Jul 29	Advance Q2 GDP	HIGH	Vs. GDPNow 1.6% — surprise low = recession fears
Thu Jul 30	June PCE Price Index	CRITICAL	Fed's preferred inflation gauge — 0.2% MoM consensus
Thu Jul 30	Weekly Jobless Claims	HIGH	Trend above 240K = labor market cracking
Fri Jul 31	ISM Manufacturing PMI	MED	Sub-50 = contraction confirmation
Fri Jul 31	Univ of Michigan Sentiment	MED	Inflation expectations component
Fri Aug 1	July NFP Report	CRITICAL	Consensus ~150K; sub-100K = recession signal
Wk of Aug 4	ECB & BOJ commentary	MED	Yen intervention; ECB rate path
Wk of Aug 4	AAPL / GOOGL / AMZN earnings	HIGH	AI capex guidance; consumer strength

J. Institutional Holder Changes — BTC, GLD, SLV ETFs

SLV ETF — Manipulation Watch

Jane Street: 20.7 million SLV shares as of Q4 2025 filing (~$1.3B position) — up from just 41,100 shares the prior quarter. That is a ~500x increase, one of the largest single-quarter position builds in ETF history. Q1 2026 13F disclosures confirm continued accumulation of 20M+ shares. Jane Street is now SLV's largest single holder, ahead of BlackRock and Morgan Stanley.

Manipulation signal? Or smart money? A 500x position increase in a single quarter is a statistical outlier. Two interpretations: (1) Legitimate directional bet on silver's structural bull case; (2) Positioning ahead of a coordinated move. Silver's crash of ~50% earlier this year (referenced in market reporting) came AFTER this position was disclosed. Watch Q2 2026 filing (due mid-August) for any reduction — that would confirm distribution.

GLD ETF

Institutional AUM continues climbing with gold at $4,045. Top holders: BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street. Central bank official gold purchases running at ~1,000 tonnes annualized pace — persistent structural bid. Quarterly 13F filings expected mid-August.

BTC ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC)

YTD 2026 cumulative flows: -$5.4B net outflows — worst institutional period since ETF launch. July recovery: +$1B over 7 sessions through July 22 (IBIT captured ~64%). GBTC continues persistent bleed (structural fee arbitrage vs. IBIT). Institutional 13F filings show mixed picture — some family offices adding on weakness, most hedge fund allocators reducing exposure.

K. Military Force Analysis & Market Impact — Iran Conflict

K1. Force Comparison Dashboard

Category	US / Coalition	Iran / Proxies
Carrier Strike Groups in theater	2 (USS Ford, USS Nimitz replacement)	—
Aircraft deployed	400+ combat aircraft	~300 aging F-14/MiG
Troop presence	~40,000 CENTCOM	~600,000 active + IRGC
Missile arsenal	Tomahawk, JASSM, hypersonic	3,000+ ballistic + drones
Proxy networks	—	Houthi (Yemen), Hezbollah, Iraq PMU
A2/AD capability	Global reach	Strait of Hormuz saturation
Est. daily US mil spend	~$400-500M/day war rate	—
Cumulative war cost (5 mos)	~$65-75B unbudgeted	—

Last 24-48h developments: Regional mediators presented Washington and Tehran a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire. Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz Tuesday; Houthis declared maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. CENTCOM completed fresh round of strikes late July on 90+ Iranian coastal targets after the June 14 memorandum of understanding collapsed.

K2. Stock Market War Impact

Beneficiaries: Defense/Aerospace (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, ITA, XAR — up 20-35% YTD), Cybersecurity (CIBR, CRWD, PANW), Shipping (INSW, STNG), Uranium (CCJ), Oil producers.

Suffering: Airlines (JETS -12% YTD), Consumer discretionary (XLY -6%), Cruise lines (CCL, NCLH), Middle-East-exposed hotels.

Historical pattern: S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough drawdown of ~9% below the January 2026 peak during the war's worst weeks, in line with Gulf War 1990 (-16% but recovered pre-invasion), Iraq 2003 (-14% pre-invasion, then rally), Libya 2011 (-6%). Recovery has been faster than historical average due to earnings resilience.

K3. Treasury Yield Spike Indicators — Traffic Light Dashboard

War spending fiscal blowout — unbudgeted costs ~$65-75B cumulativeRED

CPI headline reading — 3.5% (softer than expected)GREEN

Term premium expansion — 30Y at 5.09%, risingAMBER

Treasury auction demand — bid-to-cover softening at long endAMBER

Foreign holder positioning — Japan holding, China net sellingAMBER

Fed rhetoric — Warsh hawkish, "no tolerance for inflation"RED

Fiscal deficit trajectory — war supplemental pendingRED

Credit rating watch — no imminent downgrade warningsGREEN

2s10s bear steepening — 30Y-2Y at +81bp and wideningRED

MOVE Index — elevated but below 120 thresholdAMBER

SUMMARY: RED — Yield spike bias. 5 RED / 4 AMBER / 2 GREEN indicators = yield spike pressure building. Watch the July 30 PCE and July 31 Treasury refunding announcement as catalysts for a break above 4.85% on the 10Y.

K4. Commodity War Premium

Brent Oil ($87.53): Pre-conflict baseline was ~$75/bbl in February 2026. Current war premium: ~$12/bbl. Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic: ~4/day recently vs. pre-war 125-140/day. Goldman scenario: sustained closure → $110-130; JPM: $95-105 base case. Iraq production status: exports resumed via Turkey pipeline, ~2.5M bpd operational.

Gold ($4,045) & Silver ($57.68): Gold sits ~18% above 200-day MA — extended but not exhausted. Gold/Oil ratio at 49x vs. long-term average of 20x — signals oil is under-owned relative to safe havens OR gold has overshot. Silver's industrial demand share is now ~50% of total (solar/EV), with monetary demand accelerating. Central bank gold buying: ~1,000 tonnes annualized.

Energy infrastructure damage: ~90 Iranian coastal targets struck by CENTCOM in July. Estimated ~1.2-1.5M bpd of Iranian export capacity offline. Timeline to repair: 6-18 months for damaged terminals.

K5. War Impact on Bitcoin & Crypto

Reaffirming Section F verdict: BTC is trading as a RISK asset, not a safe haven, during the Iran conflict.

• BTC -10% since war outbreak (Feb 28) vs. Gold +28% same period
• BTC/S&P correlation: +0.72 (30-day rolling)
• BTC/Gold correlation: -0.31 (decoupling from safe havens)
• Stablecoin mcap +$12B since Feb = capital flight to USD via crypto rails
• Mining hash rate: stable ~600 EH/s; energy price shock not yet material
• DeFi TVL: flat during war stress; no safe-haven inflow
• Historical Russia-Ukraine 2022 comp: BTC initially -8% then recovered as capital-flight tool — Iran playbook different due to smaller retail crypto base and stronger G7 sanctions on crypto rails

L. Geopolitical Escalation / De-escalation Probability Tracker

Scenario	Probability (30-day)	Key Signals
Ceasefire (10-day proposal accepted)	35%	Regional mediator proposal on table; Iran economic pressure; Trump seeking political win
Status quo — sporadic strikes, no formal cease	40%	Current pattern; both sides escalate/de-escalate tactically
Escalation — direct Iran-Israel exchange or Hormuz sinking	20%	Iran retaliation for coastal strikes; Houthi Saudi embargo widens
Major escalation — regime change / regional war	5%	Tail scenario; assassinations; Hezbollah full mobilization

Diplomatic Channels Status

• Regional mediators (Oman, Qatar, Turkey) actively shuttling proposals
• UN Security Council: gridlocked by Russia/China veto positions
• Back-channel talks: US-Iran through Swiss protecting-power route continue
• Trump admin. political calculus favors a "peace deal" narrative into 2027 election prep

Impact per Scenario

Asset	Ceasefire	Status Quo	Escalation
Brent	$68-72	$85-92	$120-140
Gold	$3,850-3,950	$4,000-4,150	$4,400-4,600
S&P 500	7,600-7,800	7,300-7,500	6,700-7,000
BTC	$68-75K	$60-66K	$52-58K
Defense (ITA)	-8 to -12%	Flat	+15-25%
10Y Yield	4.30-4.45%	4.55-4.75%	4.90-5.15%

Fed Decision Day — Warsh's Hawkish Hold

A. Executive Summary — Dalio "Big Picture"

B. Market Dashboard — Global Cross-Asset Snapshot

Rates & Policy

Equities & Volatility

Currencies & Rates

Commodities & Precious Metals

Crypto

Global / Overnight

C. Cross-Asset Analysis — Druckenmiller Lens

D. Scenario Matrix — All-Weather Framework

↑ Growth + ↑ Inflation (Reflation)

↑ Growth + ↓ Inflation (Goldilocks)

↓ Growth + ↑ Inflation (Stagflation) ← CURRENT

↓ Growth + ↓ Inflation (Recession)

E. Sector & Theme Spotlight — Marks "Second-Level Thinking"

Momentum Themes

Contrarian / Second-Level Ideas

Losers to Avoid / Short

F. Crypto Deep Dive — War-Regime Analysis

BTC & ETH Technical / On-Chain

Institutional Flows

War Impact on Crypto — Is BTC Digital Gold or Risk Asset?

Regulatory Landscape

G. Conviction Views & Trade Ideas

Conviction Trades

Tactical Positions

Speculative Bets

Key Levels to Watch

H. Risk Radar — Tail Scenarios

I. Week Ahead Calendar — Key Catalysts

J. Institutional Holder Changes — BTC, GLD, SLV ETFs

SLV ETF — Manipulation Watch

GLD ETF

BTC ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, GBTC)

K. Military Force Analysis & Market Impact — Iran Conflict

K1. Force Comparison Dashboard

K2. Stock Market War Impact

K3. Treasury Yield Spike Indicators — Traffic Light Dashboard

K4. Commodity War Premium

K5. War Impact on Bitcoin & Crypto

L. Geopolitical Escalation / De-escalation Probability Tracker

Diplomatic Channels Status

Impact per Scenario

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